Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Have you ever heard of the Baltic Dry Index?

Once again, I turn to my e-mail inbox for more information, this time about the Baltic Dry Index. Using the wonders of cut and paste, I present for your consideration an e-mail I received via five other people about this index, and the news, if accurate, is not good. Since the author, a Mr. Dan Mullen, a gentleman that I do not know, provided links for further information, I leave it to you to decide if it's something to worry about. It truly sounds pretty dire to me, though I don't claim to understand everything in the articles, some of which are more recent than others. I hope you are already preparing in terms of food storage and other emergency supplies, but if not, this may give you the motivation you need. I am titling it what was in the subject headline of Mr. Mullen's e-mail, and providing said links under the title of the article rather than just the website link, which is how I originally received it. Because, as Mr. Mullen states in his e-mail, he has " been e-mailing everyone I can think of ", I hope that he doesn't mind that I am reproducing it in this forum, and that I had to work with the format after cutting and pasting it.

Thus, and at long last, a look at the BDI:

Shortages On Store Shelves Next 12 months/new links
Dan Mullen
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an indicator of how much product is actually out for delivery throughout the world. It cannot be cheated or manipulated because it deals with actual products that are either actively being shipped, or are on docks awaiting to be shipped as Freight On Board (FOB). Back in June, 2008 the BDI stood at a reasonably healthy 11,600. As of today, the BDI has plummeted to 791. That's about a 94% drop in goods actually being shipped worldwide.
This portends unprecedented disaster around the world, especially as it relates to food. Products are simply not being shipped. They aren't being shipped because there aren't any orders for them. This will translate into massive, unprecedented unemployment worldwide and, as things get worse, massive food shortages.
I have urgently asked each member of my family to stock up on dry foods like 50 lb bags of rice, 50 lb bags of oatmeal, beans, powdered milk, canned foods, canned vegetables and such to assure your family will have enough to eat when the world economy totally collapses. Many of my acquaintances laughed me off as some sort of kook for making those suggestions, with some of my friends going so far as to call me "chicken little, the sky is falling." Well, it appears I'm having the last laugh.
I correctly forecast the economic meltdown which took place in September. For over a year prior to that meltdown, I warned it was coming and, in March of 2008, I actually pinpointed the month the meltdown would take place, warning you it would happen in ( with help from LADP77) September. It did. Now I am once again warning you about food shortages because the facts are irrefutable. The BDI proves that goods are not being shipped.
There has been a 94% reduction in shipped goods since Dec. of last year and it is only going to get worse. If you do not have food stored up for your family, you will starve to death. If you do not own guns and ammunition, any food you DO have will be stolen by roving bands of savages who are trying not to starve to death.
The social breakdown that is coming is unparalleled in modern history. We are going to suffer on an order of magnitude greater than folks suffered during the Great Depression. Please, I urge you, prepare. There are only a few precious months left before it all goes to h---. So, as I said, I have been e-mailing everyone I can think of and here's a very interesting email I received back from a friend tonight. He's a senior level electrical engineer for a large engineering and construction firm in Denver and designs and builds large power plants for a living. A mid-to high-level executive with a logistics/cargo firm. His company (as well as all other shipping companies) have seen huge dives in the amount of business they do. The main point that many people do not understand is that without trade between states and nations no one prospers!
___________Believe or don't, the choice is yours but at the very least I suggest you start doing the research on this subject or you may be starving in a few short months.
Here is the new link with the charted collapse of the BDI. Notice the lack of significant improvement since October 2008
More links to articles on the growing Trade collapse and world trade crisis. I urge every reader to read them all.
End of e-mail. It gives me something to think about. Maybe you already knew about this, but I didn't, and from what I understand about it, it's all the more reason to be prepared for hard times...


Mamma Bear said...

I started following the BDI some months ago. The scary thing about the reports we are seeing now is that the items tracked are "raw" items that are waiting to be shipped not finished goods.

Dr. Richard said...

Your source is not familiar with the Baltic Dry Goods index. This is an index of prices for shipping dry goods -- essentially containers of good. Shipping rates are down 95% such that the marginal cost to ship another container from one port to another (e.g. Shanghai China to Long Beach CA) is essentially the marginal cost of extra fuel. Volumes of shipping are down between 10% and 25% depending on which port. We are seeing a significant drop in products - particularly shipments from Asian manufacturing centers (China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, etc) to the US West Coast ports. This will lead to some shortages but it is mostly a reflection of decreased consumer demand -- if consumers are not buying products at Walmart, Walmart does not need to reorder as much product from the Chinese suppliers. Also, the Baltic Index is an average. Volume changes vary greatly by category. Petrochemical shipments have had little reduction in volumes but clothes, toys, and cars are down a lot.

Beekeeper said...

Hello Marie,

I live in Illinois, but I ran across your blog during a BDI search. You're not a kook, and that's a certainty.
I received the same info on the BDI as you did several weeks ago, only in video format from a guy heavily involved with the stock market.He said that no one was talking about what was happening,and was warning us about the coming food crisis.I couldn't find anything when I searched the net.
About a week later it was all over the internet.

Have you ever heard of Gerald Celente? He's a professional trend researcher. George Celente predicted the dot com collapse, the 1987 stock market crash, the present banking crisis and more. This guy knows trends like no other and is right more often than not.Well, he predicts that by 2012 people will be living in shipping containers, and their #1 priority will be having enough food. Check it out, I think you'll find it interesting (and sad..).

His 2009 predictions...NOT nice...
Hear it for your self from him...


Peace & Blessings
Now and In The Future.

Marie said...

Mamma Bear--You are way ahead of me, then, because I don't recall ever hearing about it before. Thanks for the clarification on the items being shipped. Seems like the more I learn, the more prepared I want to be...thanks for your comment!

Dr. Richard--Thank you very much for your insight. I personally am unfamiliar with the BDI, but when this information was sent with independent articles, I figured it was worth putting it out for everyone else to research along with me. I haven't read all of the articles in their entirety, but what I read was enough to worry me. Your read on it is a lot more encouraging--not rosy, but not as worrisome either. Thanks again for your comment and for sharing your knowledge.

Beekeeper--In cases like this, it seems like there is always a difference of opinion, and since I don't understand everything about this particular issue, I would rather err on the side of caution. Thanks for sending the links--doesn't sound like they will be all that fun to look into, but I'd rather prepare for the worst than be caught in it. I've been worried about emergency preparation way before now, but if this information motivates even one more person to prepare him/herself and his/her loved ones, then they'll be better off, no matter what form a possible emergency may take. Thank you very much for taking the time to comment and for adding your input for others to see.